Ekiden

Here's what the form guide predicts for the Ekiden teams. A '*' means there was insufficient data to predict and so the values are best guess.

Distance	Vet1	Time
5	Fab	00:18:35
10	Vincent *	0:37:44
5	Bruno B	00:18:38
10	Thiery Maz	0:37:44
5	Charles	00:18:53
7.195	James	00:26:28
Total		02:38:02

Actual Time  = 02:39:38

Distance	SH1		Time
5		Mohamed Y *	00:16:53
10		Anis	00:34:37
5		Nico	00:17:39
10		Mohamed S	0:32:44
5		Jérémie	00:16:53
7.195		Eric	00:24:30
Total			02:23:16

Actual Time = 02:23:57

Distance	SH2	Time
5	Gerald	00:18:04
10	Robin	00:38:28
5	Simon	00:18:50
10	Fred *	00:38:28
5	Nick B	00:18:47
7.195	Romain	00:25:10
Total		2:37:47

Actual Time = 02:39:11

Distance	SF1	Time
5	Nadia	00:22:12
10	Françoise	00:43:23
5	Catherine	00:21:48
10	Mirelle	00:36:19
5	Aude	00:21:43
7.195	Delphine	00:32:05
Total		2:57:30

Actual Time = 02:59:13

Distance	VH2	Time
5	Daniel	00:20:48
10	Adrian	00:42:04
5	Patrick	00:19:48
10	Alex	00:40:22
5	Gerard	00:20:11
7.195	Frank	00:30:16
Total		2:53:29

Actual Time = 02:52:31

How Hard was that Race? New Features in v1.1

Race Ratings

“Courses en 78” is a new feature that allows you to compare the difficulty level of each race in the Yvelines. Based on the 2010 performances of the top 50 athletes from the Challenge 78, each race is listed, grouped by distance, with a corresponding percentage difficulty rating. A reference time is also included to make it easier to see the how the difficulty of each race affects performance. Both the reference time and the reference race are configurable.

The difficulty table is built by first assigning each athlete in the sample a performance rating for the 2010 season using the same algorithm as used for the Prediction feature. The rating is then compared against the actual performance of each athlete in the races they competed in and the difficulty table is built accordingly. Any performance that differs by more than 5% from an athlete’s average is deemed to be an anomaly and not included in the calculation. A race needs at least four qualifying athletes before it is included in the table.

Comparing my own performances from 2010 over 10 km and using La Fin D’Oisienne as the base reference time, the following results area obtained.

Race	Actual Time	Predicted Time
LA FIN D'OISIENNE	00:39:17	00:39:17
FOULEE D'AUBERGENVILLE	00:38:44	00:38:45
TOUR DE HOUILLES	00:39:15	00:39:26
CHALLENGE CHRISTIAN LAGOUTTE	00:40:00	00:39:55

The values for actual and predicted times are astonishingly close. Assuming that the difficulty ratings are at least partially accurate, then the results suggest that my form was fairly constant throughout the season whereas I actually perceived it as being much more up and down.

Of course, this kind of calculation is open to all sorts of external influences, especially when trying to use it as a guide for future races. Most obviously, climatic conditions on the day of a race can significantly influence athlete performance. It is perhaps most useful as a historical view of an athlete’s form throughout the 2010 season although still valid for getting a general idea of the difficulty level of a future race.

See the new feature here: Race Ratings