Prediction Tool

The site now has a race prediction tool. It is similar to the McMillan Running Calculator except that instead of entering a reference time as an initial input value, it looks at recent performances for each athlete and makes estimates accordingly. For obvious reasons, only road races over 10, 15 and 21.1 km are considered for the initial input value. I suppose I should also include Marathon performances and will do in a future version.

There is also a confidence indicator as to the accuracy of results. The more recent the last few races of each athlete, the higher the confidence level of an accurate prediction. Given the lack of road races at the moment, it’s unlikely that too many predictions will have a high confidence level.

The ratios used for making predictions, once a base performance level has been established, are based on McMillan’s values but it is intended to also have a set of ratios based on performances from within the club. This is not expected to produce significantly better results as not enough athletes compete regularly over the full range of distances in order to produce a large enough sample. If there were, it would also be possible to provide a difficulty level for each race and hence make even more accurate predictions.

Of course the tool is only a guide and can’t know about external factors such as weather, injuries, hangovers etc. If the predictions are wildly inaccurate please comment below and I’ll check the algorithm.